How do China, Japan and South Korea confront each other at short notice in the post-subsidy era? How can domestic power battery enterprises defeat their enemies?

To some extent, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in China are due to the cost and performance of power batteries. Previously, in the absence of foreign power battery impact background, domestic power battery companies have experienced a period of prosperity. However, subsidies are not a long-term solution, and real competition will come after 2020, when subsidies recede. Japanese and Korean battery companies are already paving the way for market share in the post-subsidy era. A basic consensus is that the post-subsidy era, the domestic power battery market may be staged "three kingdoms kill." Increasing Concentration According to the Power Pool Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, the total installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in China will reach 56.89 GWh in 2018, an increase of 56.88% over 2017, with the top 20 enterprises accounting for 52.23 GWh, or 91.8% of the annual installed capacity. In 2018, China's power battery market continues the trend of increasing concentration, high-quality enterprises continue to expand market share, backward enterprises are gradually eliminated from the market. About three years ago, there were 231 power battery enterprises in China, which decreased to 151 in 2016 and 130 in 2017. After a brutal market phase-out in 2018, only about 90 battery companies remain in the market, according to incomplete statistics. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from 2013 to 2015, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 0.67 GWh, 3.26 GWh, 15.53 GWh respectively, with the market scale Not much, but more than 200 companies grabbed the supporting shares. In 2018, the number of power batteries installed in China has more than tripled, and only 93 enterprises have installed power batteries. This indicates that the concentration degree of power batteries in China tends to accelerate. In 2018, the top three power battery companies in China accounted for 66.76% of the market share, with the top five companies accounting for 73.72% and the top ten companies accounting for 82.83%. Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Ranked first with 41.19 percent, while Huizhou BYD Battery Co., Ltd. Ranked 20.09 percent and Hefei Guoxuan High-tech Power Energy Co., Ltd. Ranked third with 5.4 percent. The demonstration and popularization of new energy vehicles in China starts from passenger cars, but passenger cars are the biggest market. In recent years, the power battery load of new energy passenger vehicles in China has been increasing. The supporting capacity in 2016 was 9.28 GWh, 13.75 GWh in 2017 and 33.08 GWh in 2018. In terms of matching models, ternary lithium-ion batteries accounted for 89.11% of all-electric passenger cars, and lithium iron phosphate remained the mainstream in passenger cars, accounting for 94.01%. While the market share of the leading power battery enterprises is increasing, the technology is also advancing, and the R & D of 300Wh/kg batteries has made remarkable progress. Ningde Times 300Wh/kg soft-pack battery products have entered the C-like stage, is expected to achieve mass production by 2020; The cell energy density of Tianjin Lishen battery reached 302 Wh/Kg at 25 ℃ After 710 cycles (100% DOD) of charge and discharge at 1C, the capacity retention rate reached 80%. At present, the capacity retention rate of 285 cycles (100% DOD) was as high as 96%. Hefei Guoxuan Sanyuan 811 soft package sample has passed the mid-term inspection of the Ministry of Science and Technology recently, with energy density of 302 Wh/kg and cycle times of more than 1500 weeks. In 2018, the cost of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries in China will be about 0.8-1.0 yuan/Wh and 0.7-0.9 yuan/Wh respectively. Dong Yang, executive vice-president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, revealed that the cost of power batteries in China will soon reach $1/Wh, by which time the cost of new energy vehicles will be able to compete with that of conventional vehicles. Japanese and Korean companies are stepping up their efforts to distribute China as the world's largest electric vehicle market. Naturally, Japanese and Korean battery companies are unlikely to give up such a big market opportunity and step up their efforts to distribute their batteries in China. In 2015, Samsung SDI and Anqing Huanxin, the high-tech group's joint venture power battery production base in Xi'an factory (Samsung Huanxin) was completed and put into operation. In order to meet the needs of the domestic battery market, on November 29, 2018, Samsung Ring New Power Battery Phase II Project officially commenced in Xi'an with a total investment of 10.5 billion yuan and a construction area of 160,000 square meters. Upon completion of the project, five 60Ah lithium ion battery production lines will be formed. The second phase of Samsung SDI's construction has been widely interpreted in the industry as a restart of Samsung SDI's business in China. Three years ago, foreign-funded batteries failed to meet the requirements of the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Regulation Conditions" and were thus unable to obtain subsidies Price competition is lacking, and foreign battery sales, including Samsung SDI, are stagnating in China. After three years of dormancy, Samsung SDI has made a comeback in the Chinese market. "We will prepare for the end of subsidies for new energy vehicles [in China] by 2020," Samsung SDI said in its first quarter 2018 earnings report with no disguise. At present, the power density of Samsung SDI 3rd generation batteries is 550Wh/L. According to Samsung SDI's plan, the energy density of the 3.5 th generation batteries is expected to reach 630 Wh/L by 2019. Samsung SDI is also accelerating research and development of generation 4 and generation 5 batteries, with energy densities of 700 Wh/L (equivalent to 270-280 Wh/kg) and 800 Wh/L (equivalent to 300 Wh/kg), respectively, expected to be produced in 2021-2022 and after 2023. In July 2018, LG Chemicals held a signing ceremony with Nanjing Jiangning Binjiang Development Zone, where it plans to invest US $2 billion to build power battery projects. The project commenced in October 2018 and is scheduled to achieve mass production in October 2019. It will reach full production by 2023 with an estimated annual capacity of 32 GWh. LG Chemical has said that the Nanjing plant is the third largest power battery plant after the Wucang plant in South Korea and the Holland plant in the United States, and will also be the most important power battery production base of LG Chemical in the world. Panasonic Establishes Domestic Battery Manufacturing Enterprise Based in Dalian, Panasonic Group, May 2017 Invested 2 billion yuan to build a car battery factory in Dalian. Panasonic's battery project is divided into two phases: The first phase, with an investment of 2 billion yuan and an area of 170,000 square meters, is mainly engaged in the design, manufacture, sales and after-sales service of vehicle-mounted lithium batteries. Construction of the second phase will also start shortly. Panasonic mainly manufactures square batteries in China, while Tesla uses cylindrical batteries. Although Panasonic's domestic battery factories cannot meet Tesla's production requirements, Panasonic Battery has gained a reputation as a global supplier of Tesla batteries with the acceleration of Tesla's domestication process, which is conducive to Panasonic's battery development in the domestic market. Panasonic Batteries, which has a strong reputation in the market, is proposing to increase sales of its on-board batteries business by 2.2 times in 2018 to 2015, and Panasonic Batteries has the strength to propose such a high growth rate. Co-ordinated Response to Competition Both foreign and domestic battery companies know that after 2020, when subsidies recede, the market will enter the post-subsidization era and competition will really come close to hand-to-hand. In order to cope with the future competitive situation, domestic leading battery enterprises to step up the layout of the market. Yutong Bus, SAIC, Dongfeng Automobile, Chang'an Automobile, Beiqi, Geely, Guangzhou Automobile, Chery, Fuqi, Hagrid, Jinlong, Heavy Duty Truck, etc. have become customers of Ningde Times. Weimar, Weilai, Aichi, Baton, Dianca, Yundu, cars and homes of the new car-building forces also use batteries of Ningde Times. In addition to its own supply, BYD and Chang'an Automobile have formed a joint venture in Chongqing to produce batteries, firmly bundling interests between the two sides. Fornum technology in the supporting Mercedes-Benz cars at the same time is also constantly Expanding other customers, with Beijing Automotive New Energy, Jiangling Automotive and other enterprises for many years of cooperation have also achieved good market results. Is it so terrible for foreign battery companies to enter the domestic market? At the annual meeting of the Innovation Alliance for the Battery Industry, an industry insider told China Automobile News that videos of electric vehicles burning regularly appear on the domestic network, and news of such negative information has reduced the reputation of domestic batteries. But in fact, foreign batteries are often caught in flames. In recent years, for example, South Korea has had 18 fires at energy storage plants, though little is known about them, the person cited. China has far more base stations than south korea, and videos could be uploaded to the internet immediately in the event of a fire at any base station in the country, where there have been fewer fires at energy storage plants. The above-mentioned personages also point out that the battery quality and level of domestic leading enterprises are not inferior to those of foreign battery enterprises. In order to cope with the competition in the post-subsidy era, Battery Industry Innovation Alliance will become a platform for enterprises to exert synergistic effects.It will build a high-level, international collaborative innovation network and innovation system, promote the centralization of research efforts in key materials, monomers, systems and other common basic technology research areas, actively promote the transformation of achievements and international cooperation, and achieve the "1 +1 > 2" multiplier effect. The Battery Industry Innovation Alliance will continue to promote the construction of testing platform and pilot incubation capacity of power batteries, form the hard power of research and development, testing and verification and technology incubation of power batteries, accelerate the progress of research and development of lithium-ion power upgrading projects, and make up for the shortcomings and weaknesses of the industrial chain. At present, China and Japan South Korea's three battery companies in the production technology and scale of the world's forefront. Post-subsidy era is coming, the real market competition has just begun, who will win, the market will give the answer.